Surprise

The fifth principle of warfare is "Surprise". Here are my friend Aaron Bhatnagar's posts on ACT's Epsom campaign. Aaron lives in Epsom, was 2IC to my campaign manager in Epsom in 1999, and joined the Nats in 2002 when ACT determined not to contest Epsom in 2002:

Rodney Hide ad in the East and Bays Courier
Money wasted down the drain if you ask me. Ads in local papers are hopeless. This should have been a direct mail letter or a brochure drop.
posted by Aaron Bhatnagar at 8/05/2005 07:45:00 PM

You can say what you like about Richard Worth, but he has been working over his local patch well. He has been very active in the local community. That's why he is polling ahead of Hide despite the fact that Rodney is the one who has been high profile. ... While Rodney has been a wholesale politician, Richard has been practicising retail politics and doing it well.

- No one in ACT has yet asked me for my vote in Epsom. The local ACT campaign has been in my opinion rather dismal. The Rodney Hide for Epsom hoardings went up 12 days after Richard Worth's signs went up. I have received no Rodney Hide direct mail asking for the constituency vote. I got a letter from Roger Douglas the other day, but that was used for puppy training. I have not received the vaunted ACT pamphlet that went out the other day, so as far as I can tell, its been a sleepy campaign.
posted by Aaron Bhatnagar at 8/23/2005 03:45:00 PM

Update: National Party hierarchy I have since spoken with are openly scornful of this ACT Epsom poll, saying that recent internal National polls show Richard well ahead and with no major difference to the poll from a few weeks ago in the Herald on Sunday. They point out that at 1%, Rodney Hide brings no extra MPs into Parliament, and that all Rodney would do is deprive a National MP of getting elected on the list instead.
posted by Aaron Bhatnagar at 8/31/2005 10:31:00 AM

Hide has closed the gap. But I don't think it's enough. Can he, or anyone else close 14 points in 7 days? You can't help but think Richard Worth is too well entrenched.
posted by Aaron Bhatnagar at 9/09/2005 06:09:00 PM

There's no doubt that the ACT people have showed energy, guts and most recently, some momentum in Epsom. If the election was one month away, maybe even two weeks away, a punter might think that ACT could do it, especially if enough polls put ACT's party vote around 3% or greater. But with an election tomorrow, my own assessment is that they haven't put their message to enough voters, or rather, the message has yet to sink in with enough voters. National's well-timed counter-strike from Judy Kirk and Scott Simpson earlier this week would have sent a strong signal to voters that National wants both of their votes - no split voting in Epsom please.
posted by Aaron Bhatnagar at 9/16/2005 06:47:00 AM

Rodney Hide made it in Epsom. I have to admit, I didn't think he would make it, his victory tonight represents a massive victory over pollsters, the naysayers and indeed not in the least his now thrice-election old opponent Richard Worth.
posted by Aaron Bhatnagar at 9/18/2005 12:20:00 AM

Surprise!

And note: National Party hierarchy ... point out that at 1%, Rodney Hide brings no extra MPs into Parliament, and that all Rodney would do is deprive a National MP of getting elected on the list instead.

The hierarchy clearly don't read their own brochures -- it's the party vote that determines the total number of MPs for National -- not whether Richard Worth won or lost Epsom. Sigh. And of course there are no extra MPs for Parliament -- but there are two extra for the Centre-Right.

If National understood MMP arithmetic Don Brash would now be Prime Minister. Double sigh.